Tuesday, May 19, 2020

Kobe Bryant Overrated

Even before Kobe Bryant died, his reputation as a basketball player exceeded his statistics.  Since he's died it's gone to another level.  ESPN ranked the 74 greatest basketball players of all time, and had him ranked 9th.  This caused a lot of controversy from people thinking he should be ranked higher.  Jamal Crawford even said he couldn't respect a list that didn't have Bryant in the top 5. 

So is Kobe a top 5 player.  No.  In my opinion he's borderline top 10.  There are several reasons that Kobe is thought so highly relative to what the numbers say.  

Let's go back to 1998.  Michael Jordan is playing a season that many believe will be his last.  In this season Kobe really emerges.  He holds his own to showdowns with Jordan, and Jordan gives Kobe his seal of approval.  They were on camera having a conversation in which was giving Bryant advice.  Michael said Kobe was the future of the league.  When Michael retired in January of 1999, a lot of people were looking for a Michael Jordan replacement.  Kobe Bryant fit the mold.  He went out of his way to copy Jordan, from his use of the fadeaway jumper, the same footwork, and even the mannerisms.  He was the right person at the right time.  Kobe rode the Michael Jordan wave, and his fandom is closely related to Jordan's.  Because Kobe was copied Jordan, and was athletic, and skilled, his game was aesthetically pleasing.  Not in the way Jordan's game way (who's is), but good enough to give the popularity edge of Shaq, who dominated by brute force.  Even though Shaq was the better player during the Lakers' threepeat, Kobe was the one fans wanted to be better.  Now years later, many of them act as if he was better.

The numbers don't back up Kobe's reputation.  His PER ranks 27th all time.  He ranks 29th all time in Box Plus Minus, and that stat is only used for season starting in 1973-74.  Even metric categories that reward longevity aren't that favorable to him.  He's 19th all time in Win Shares, and 12th in Value Over Replacement Player.  When you consider that he player over 48,000 minutes those rankings really don't back up his reputation as a player.  I like advanced metrics.  Sure they aren't perfect.  What stat is perfect for letting you know how good a player is?  
 
Looking at scoring numbers shows that Kobe was one of the greatest scorers of all time.  He averaged 35.8 points per 100 possessions in his career, good enough for 5th all time according to basketball reference.  His points per 100 was 36.1 before the dip in his last 3 seasons.  Still the 4 players ahead of him all have higher true shooting percentages.  Some of the players close to him also are/were more efficient scorers.  Still Kobe was one of the greatest scorers ever.  The problem is that he doesn't stand out in any other category.  His rebound number aren't that special.  There were several shooting guards who were better rebounders than him.  His assists numbers are okay for a guy with so much scoring responsibility, but they aren't great.  He wasn't great at getting steals either.  So statistically he wasn't one of the 10 greatest players of all time.  Was he better than his stats?  Relative to his era, I don't think he was.  He was a good defender, but not a great one.  He was named first team all defense in several seasons in which he didn't deserve it.  If you want to bring up eras, then it's tough comparing Bill Russell, or Wilt Chamberlain to Kobe, because the players were so inferior in their era.  Obviously we give those old legends the benefit of the doubt.  

Kobe was one of the greatest basketball players of all time.  In my opinion he wasn't a top five player ever, and might not have been a top 1o players.  He certainly isn't a top 10 player based on statistics.  Besides borderline top 10 isn't bad.



No comments:

Post a Comment