Friday, September 15, 2017

Brady vs Manning In The Regular Season (Written Before 2017 season)

Tom Brady will go down as being a better quarterback than Peyton Manning.  That is surely true.  As surely as Joe Montana is generally considered a better quarterback than John Elway, and Dan Marino.  In football, which is such a team game, so much credit is given to the quarterback for team wins, and teams winning championships.  I believe that too much is put into how many Super Bowls a quarterback wins.  It is important to consider it, but that is a team accomplishment, and individual greatness is what I am looking at. Still Brady is seen now as the greatest quarterback of all time.  There isn't much arguing against it at this moment.   I wanted to compare Peyton Manning and Tom Brady in the regular season, and look at the advanced metrics of DYAR (Defense Adjusted Yards Above Replacement), from Football Outsiders.  Manning and Brady are two of the greats who've played their entire career in the DYAR era.  I looked at pass plays as counted by pro football outsiders, which counts sack plays, and their career DYAR.  Pro Football Outsiders doesn't show their career numbers for their metrics like other sites so I had to do come calculator work

                                 Pass Plays   DYAR
Peyton Manning         9668            26296
Tom Brady                 8633            21136

The edge goes to Manning even when you factor in pass plays, which Manning had around 1000 more of than Brady.  Doing the division Manning averaged 2.72 DYAR per pass play, while Brady has averaged 2.45.  I wonder why Manning would have that type of edge.  Their career passer ratings are close to equal. 97.2 for Brady, and 96.5 for Manning.  One advantage of Manning is that he got sacked less often.  Despite having 1156 more pass attempts is his career Manning was sacked over 100 times less than Brady

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BradTo00.htm
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/MannPe00.htm

Manning had 9380 pass attempts, and was sacked 303 times, which adds up to 9683, which is close enough to the total pass plays I got from Football Outsiders.  Maybe some of those sacks weren't counted as pass plays.  Brady has 8224 pass attempts and has been sacked 417 times.  That adds up to 8641 plays.  Manning's sack percentage for his career 3.1, while it's 4.8 for Brady.  Manning has slight edges over Brady in Net Yards Gained per pass attempt (NY/A), and Adjusted Net Yards per Pass Attempt(ANY/A).  Despite their big difference in playoff success their playoff numbers are fairly even.  Brady has the slight edge in passer rating, while Manning has edges in NY/A, and ANY/A, the margins of which are similar to Manning's advantages in the regular season.


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