Friday, September 29, 2017

2016 FBI crime statistics

The FBI's 2016 crime statistics have been recently released, and I have looked though some of the data.  With so much attention, again, being paid to white criminals, and racist, I was wondering what happened to the issue of black crime.  Did things get better, or worse in 2016.  Data like this is also important, because one thing that is often done, is picking out individual instances, and implying that it represents to big problem.  SJWs do this often when it comes to white men, but the big thing is to look at the big picture to see what is going on.


There are about 5.8 times as many white people as black people, but in terms of total arrest whites were only arrested about 2.6 times as much as blacks, so blacks are more likely to be arrested per capita.  One big difference is in the type of crimes.  When it comes to violent crimes numbers are worse for black people.  Whites were arrested for violent crime about 1.57 times as much as black people.  Adjusting for population, black people are about 3.7 times more likely to be arrested for violent crime than whites.  Things get even worse for black people in terms of murder.


Black people killed more than white people, despite making up much less of the U.S. population.  I looked up the data for 2015, and then blacks made up for an estimated 53.3% of murderers.  Last year out of the 11390 murderers for which their race was known, blacks made up 6095 of those.  That's 53.5%, which is pretty consistent with last year's data.  Another thing worth mentioning is that the vast of majority of the hispanic population is counted as being white, so if we looked at non hispanic whites, the murders numbers for them would be a good deal lower than the 5004 number shown.  Looking at the population data, and doing some numbers crunching black people are still about 7 times more likely to commit murder than white people.  It seems like it's been that way forever, with blacks being about 7 times more likely to commit murder.

A look at single victim/single offender data shows some other patterns that are staying the same.  Of the murders in which the race the offender was known 83.3% of white people murdered were killed by other whites, while 90.8 percent of blacks murdered were killed by other blacks.  Last year I had those numbers at 81.3, and 89.3 percent respectively, but I made the mistake of counting all murders, and not just those in which the race of the offender was known.  If I did this year's stats the same way as I did last year, the percentages would be 81.6% of murdered whites being killed by whites, and 89.5% percent of murdered blacks being killed by other blacks.

There's another pattern that has stayed similar to last year.  Black people killed white people, more than white people kill black people.  According to the single victim/single offender data 533 black people killed whites, and 243 white people killed blacks.   That's a ratio of 2.19/1, which is similar to the 2.21/1 ratio from last year.

Another issue is the fact that the murder rates increased for the second consecutive year.  It went from 4.4 per 100,000 to 4.9 from 2014 to 2015, and in 2016 it went up to 5.3.  While we won't get 2017's murder statistics until late September next year,  this article https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/murder-is-up-again-in-2017-but-not-as-much-as-last-year/, predicts an increase in murder for 2017 based on data from big cities.  Hopefully this isn't a long term pattern.

Links

Murder Victims stats  https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2016/crime-in-the-u.s.-2016/tables/expanded-homicide-data-table-1.xls

Murder Offender stats https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2016/crime-in-the-u.s.-2016/tables/expanded-homicide-data-table-2.xls

Single Victim/Single Offenders Murder stats  https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2016/crime-in-the-u.s.-2016/tables/expanded-homicide-data-table-3.xls

Demographics https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/US/PST045216

Arrests stats  https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2016/crime-in-the-u.s.-2016/topic-pages/tables/table-21

Murder rates 1997-2016  https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2016/crime-in-the-u.s.-2016/topic-pages/violent-crime/tables/table-1

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