2016 FBI crime statistics

The FBI's 2016 crime statistics have been recently released, and I have looked though some of the data.  With so much attention, again, being paid to white criminals, and racist, I was wondering what happened to the issue of black crime.  Did things get better, or worse in 2016.  Data like this is also important, because one thing that is often done, is picking out individual instances, and implying that it represents to big problem.  SJWs do this often when it comes to white men, but the big thing is to look at the big picture to see what is going on.


There are about 5.8 times as many white people as black people, but in terms of total arrest whites were only arrested about 2.6 times as much as blacks, so blacks are more likely to be arrested per capita.  One big difference is in the type of crimes.  When it comes to violent crimes numbers are worse for black people.  Whites were arrested for violent crime about 1.57 times as much as black people.  Adjusting for population, black people are about 3.7 times more likely to be arrested for violent crime than whites.  Things get even worse for black people in terms of murder.


Black people killed more than white people, despite making up much less of the U.S. population.  I looked up the data for 2015, and then blacks made up for an estimated 53.3% of murderers.  Last year out of the 11390 murderers for which their race was known, blacks made up 6095 of those.  That's 53.5%, which is pretty consistent with last year's data.  Another thing worth mentioning is that the vast of majority of the hispanic population is counted as being white, so if we looked at non hispanic whites, the murders numbers for them would be a good deal lower than the 5004 number shown.  Looking at the population data, and doing some numbers crunching black people are still about 7 times more likely to commit murder than white people.  It seems like it's been that way forever, with blacks being about 7 times more likely to commit murder.

A look at single victim/single offender data shows some other patterns that are staying the same.  Of the murders in which the race the offender was known 83.3% of white people murdered were killed by other whites, while 90.8 percent of blacks murdered were killed by other blacks.  Last year I had those numbers at 81.3, and 89.3 percent respectively, but I made the mistake of counting all murders, and not just those in which the race of the offender was known.  If I did this year's stats the same way as I did last year, the percentages would be 81.6% of murdered whites being killed by whites, and 89.5% percent of murdered blacks being killed by other blacks.

There's another pattern that has stayed similar to last year.  Black people killed white people, more than white people kill black people.  According to the single victim/single offender data 533 black people killed whites, and 243 white people killed blacks.   That's a ratio of 2.19/1, which is similar to the 2.21/1 ratio from last year.

Another issue is the fact that the murder rates increased for the second consecutive year.  It went from 4.4 per 100,000 to 4.9 from 2014 to 2015, and in 2016 it went up to 5.3.  While we won't get 2017's murder statistics until late September next year,  this article https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/murder-is-up-again-in-2017-but-not-as-much-as-last-year/, predicts an increase in murder for 2017 based on data from big cities.  Hopefully this isn't a long term pattern.

Links

Murder Victims stats  https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2016/crime-in-the-u.s.-2016/tables/expanded-homicide-data-table-1.xls

Murder Offender stats https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2016/crime-in-the-u.s.-2016/tables/expanded-homicide-data-table-2.xls

Single Victim/Single Offenders Murder stats  https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2016/crime-in-the-u.s.-2016/tables/expanded-homicide-data-table-3.xls

Demographics https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/US/PST045216

Arrests stats  https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2016/crime-in-the-u.s.-2016/topic-pages/tables/table-21

Murder rates 1997-2016  https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2016/crime-in-the-u.s.-2016/topic-pages/violent-crime/tables/table-1

Brady vs Manning In The Regular Season (Written Before 2017 season)

Tom Brady will go down as being a better quarterback than Peyton Manning.  That is surely true.  As surely as Joe Montana is generally considered a better quarterback than John Elway, and Dan Marino.  In football, which is such a team game, so much credit is given to the quarterback for team wins, and teams winning championships.  I believe that too much is put into how many Super Bowls a quarterback wins.  It is important to consider it, but that is a team accomplishment, and individual greatness is what I am looking at. Still Brady is seen now as the greatest quarterback of all time.  There isn't much arguing against it at this moment.   I wanted to compare Peyton Manning and Tom Brady in the regular season, and look at the advanced metrics of DYAR (Defense Adjusted Yards Above Replacement), from Football Outsiders.  Manning and Brady are two of the greats who've played their entire career in the DYAR era.  I looked at pass plays as counted by pro football outsiders, which counts sack plays, and their career DYAR.  Pro Football Outsiders doesn't show their career numbers for their metrics like other sites so I had to do come calculator work

                                 Pass Plays   DYAR
Peyton Manning         9668            26296
Tom Brady                 8633            21136

The edge goes to Manning even when you factor in pass plays, which Manning had around 1000 more of than Brady.  Doing the division Manning averaged 2.72 DYAR per pass play, while Brady has averaged 2.45.  I wonder why Manning would have that type of edge.  Their career passer ratings are close to equal. 97.2 for Brady, and 96.5 for Manning.  One advantage of Manning is that he got sacked less often.  Despite having 1156 more pass attempts is his career Manning was sacked over 100 times less than Brady

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BradTo00.htm
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/MannPe00.htm

Manning had 9380 pass attempts, and was sacked 303 times, which adds up to 9683, which is close enough to the total pass plays I got from Football Outsiders.  Maybe some of those sacks weren't counted as pass plays.  Brady has 8224 pass attempts and has been sacked 417 times.  That adds up to 8641 plays.  Manning's sack percentage for his career 3.1, while it's 4.8 for Brady.  Manning has slight edges over Brady in Net Yards Gained per pass attempt (NY/A), and Adjusted Net Yards per Pass Attempt(ANY/A).  Despite their big difference in playoff success their playoff numbers are fairly even.  Brady has the slight edge in passer rating, while Manning has edges in NY/A, and ANY/A, the margins of which are similar to Manning's advantages in the regular season.