Friday, July 8, 2016

Old Emmitt Smith Shit





Emmitt Smith outperformed his running back teammates in average per carry during his 15 year career, but not by a bunch.  He averaged 4.16 yards per carry, while the other running backs on his teams averaged 3.94.  If we look at his 13 seasons with the Cowboys his average is 4.24, and his teammates' is 4.01.  The difference is 0.23.  That would be middle of the line for an all time great.  Pro football Insiders has his teammates average as being 4.00 for his 13 seasons with the Cowboys, so my stats are pretty accurate.  Smith outdid his teammates' averages in 10 of his 15 seasons, and outdid his team's number 2 runner (determined by attempts) in 8 or his 15, but those numbers are skewed by what happened when he was well past his best.  In his first 10 seasons Smith averaged 4.31 yards per carry while his teammates averaged just 3.70.  The reason I look at the first 10 seasons is because that was the length of Barry Sanders' career. The surprising thing is that the Cowboys other runners didn't do that good in years when the team was at their most dominant.  The gap between Smith, and his teams' other runners closed when he was past his prime, and his teammates performed better running the ball.  So the .23 difference doesn't give you a good idea what Smith meant to the Cowboys at his best.  When looking at the stats of Smith's running back teammates, it seems to me that the changes in average was determined more by who the runners were
than who the blockers were. Daryl Johnston, Derrick Lassick, and Sherman Williams didn't do that great behind "The Great Wall of Dallas", but Chris Warren who had proven himself in Seattle did pretty well running behind the Cowboys line.  The one anamoly is Troy Hambrick. He backed up Smith for two years with the Cowboys, and one with the Cardinals.  In those three seasons he averaged 4.6 yards per carry, but when he was the number 1 runner for the Cowboys in the 2003 season, he averaged just 3.5.

One of Smith best qualities was his consistency.  Pro Football Outsides' DYAR(Defense Adjusted Yards Above Replacement), and DVOA (Defense Adjusted Value of Attempt) statistics reward consistency.  Comparing Smith's DYAR to his teammates is not a good comparison, because he got a lot more carries, but the DVOA comparison is a good one, and in those comparisons Smith does better than he does in yards per carry comparisons.  Even in some years where a backup was close to him or ahead of him in yards per carry they weren't close in DVOA. In 1995 Smith averaged 4.7 yards per carry, while Sherman Williams averaged 4.3, but in terms of DVOA, Smith's was 21.5% (higher than average), while Williams' was -17.0%.  In 1996 Smith averaged 3.7, while Williams averaged 4.0, but Smith outdid Williams in DVOA with -0.9% to Williams' -21.1%.  In 1998 Chris Warren averaged 4.9 yards per carry, but had a DVOA of only -21.0%, while Smith produced 9.9% DVOA, while averaging 4.2 yards per carry.  The two were close in yards per carry the next season when Smith averaged 4.2, and Warren averaged 4.1, but they weren't close in DVOA.  Smith's was 9.5%, and Warren's was -14.5%   So Smith helped the Cowboys by averaging higher than average yards per carry, while at the same time carrying a heavy workload, being consistent, and being a great short yardage, and goal line runner. 


Below is a year by year look at Smith's yards per carry, and those of his running back teammates.  Next RB, means the running back with on the team with the most carries outside of Smith.  Next NFB means next Non Fullback, or the runner with the most yards  other than Smith who isn't listed by pro football reference as a fullback.  Those runners are the same person in the last 13 years of Smith's career, and different people in the first two.  OtherRB is simply the yards per carry for the other running backs on his teams.  The Next NFB on the Cowboys got just 6 carries in 1990, and 15 in 1991. 

            Emmitt  Next RB  Next NFB  OtherRB
1990     3.9        4.0           1.0              3.4
1991     4.3        3.2           5.3              3.7
1992     4.6        3.6           3.6              3.5
1993     5.3        3.6           3.6              3.5  
1994     4.0        2.8           2.8              2.9
1995     4.7        4.3           4.3              4.4
1996     3.7        3.9           3.9              4.0
1997     4.1        3.9           3.9              3.8
1998     4.2        3.4           3.4              4.0
1999     4.2        4.1           4.1              4.1
2000     4.1        4.3           4.3              4.0 
2001     3.9        5.1           5.1              5.6
2002     3.8        4.0           4.0              4.6
2003     2.8        3.6           3.6              3.6
2004     3.5        4.5           4.5              3.8 


The averages for Smith and his teammates' through his first 10, and 13 seasons, and then for his full career.
                   Smith  OtherRBs
10 seasons    4.31   3.70
13 seasons    4.24   4.01
15 seasons    4.16   3.94


Rushing Attempts-Effective Yards-Avg (Using Football Outsiders)
First 10 seasons
Smith       3243-16737-5.16
NextRBs    642-2023-3.15
First 13 seasons
Smith     4052-19748-4.87 
Teammates 834-2882-3.46
Career
Smith    4409-20745-4.71
NextRBs  1125-3822-3.51



Data from Pro Football Reference, and Football Outsiders

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