Advanced Metrics Not So Kind To These Greats

Advanced Metrics might not be the be all end all, but they combine with traditional statistics to give us a better viewpoint of the game, of players helps teams.  Still that stats aren't always an accurate way to measure a player's greatness.  In basketball due to the lack of defensive statistics some important players don't do too well in terms of modern metrics.  Players such as Bruce Bowen, Dennis Rodman, and Ron Artest/Metta World Peace/Whatever get hurt because they impacted defense in ways that do not show up in statistics.  For Rodman at least he got a lot of defensive rebounds.  I didn't want this to be about those types of players.  Dave Hollinger who created the formula for Player Efficiency Rating (PER), admits that the formula isn't a fair way to judge certain defensive players who didn't put big stats.  I wanted to concentrate on certain great who did put up some big numbers in terms of traditional statistics, but aren't really rewarded in terms of modern metrics.  A recent ESPN article about how Isiah Thomas fared in terms of metrics inspired me to write this, but I had already thought about this for a while.  So here goes

Allen Iverson
To certain people in my age group and a little younger, Allen Iverson should be getting compared to the likes of Kobe Bryant, Michael Jordan, and Lebron James.  I lived in Philadelphia when he first came into the league, and the city went crazy right after he crossed over Michael Jordan.  There was constant talk about it, and he was being compared to Jordan in his rookie season.  Not long ago Lebron James said that Iverson was pound for pound the best player ever.  His reputation among the people who were young during prime is so strong, but when you get past his high points per game average, his stats don't back it up.  He averaged 26.7ppg, 3.7rpg, and 6.2apg, but he played over 41 minutes a game.  His per game averages look pretty good compared to Kobe Bryant (25.1ppg, 5.3rpg, 4.7apg), but he played about 5 more minutes per game.  When you adjust for minutes the edge clearly goes to Kobe. 

Per 36 minute averages
                             Points  Rebounds   Assists                    
Allen Iverson       23.3      3.3             5.4
Kobe Bryant        24.9      5.2             4.7

Iverson was not efficient from the field.  His career field goal percentage is 42.5.  His true shooting percentage of 51.8%, which is right around average for his era.  He got steals at a high rate, but got blocks at a low rate.  His career PER is 20.9 is the regular season, and 21.2 in the post season, which is actually good, but not in the class of the best to ever play the game.  When you look at win shares he does even worse.  Iverson had 99.0 win shares in his career, which is significantly less than Chauncey Billups http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2014/9/10/6130879/chauncey-billups-retires-trades-pistons-celtics.  His win shares per 48 minutes is .126, which is just barely above half of Michael Jordan, and David Robinson's averages.  Win shares may not be the greatest way to judge a players, since it factors in a combination of how good a player's stats are, and how many wins his team gets.  More team wins, means more wins for players to share.  The problem is Iverson is so far below greats that he is compared to.  In 2001 playoffs where Iverson "carried" the 76ers to the finals, he didn't lead his team in win shares.  Dikembe Mutombo had 3.8 win shares in those playoffs, compared to 2.7 for Iverson. In terms of regular season win shares his 11.8 was comfortably ahead of the 2nd highest (6.5 by George Lynch), but that was largely because of the fact that Theo Ratliff was traded to Atlanta for Motombo, so neither spent close to a full year with the team.  In his 34 games, and 875 mintues played for Philly that season Motombo got .201 win shares per 48 minutes, compared to Iverson's .190.  That was his peak season in terms of win shares, and he only had 3 seasons in his career with more than 10.  For comparsion Michael Jordan had 3 season with over 20 win shares.  In the playoffs Iverson's staggering 29.7ppg (2nd all time behind Jordan's 33.4), belies the fact that his shooting averages were worse.  His career 40.1 field goal percentage, and his 48.9 true shooting percentage are worse than his regular season percentages.  While his  career playoff PER is slightly higher than his regular season 20.9, his win shares per 48 minutes is only .109. 


Isiah Thomas
When it comes to older basketball fans.  The type that you see on ESPN talking about sports
Isiah Thomas' reputation is probably even greater than Allen Iverson's is with people in
my age group.  Ask who is the greatest "little man" to ever play, and many will tell you
that it is Isiah Thomas.  Unlike Iverson, Thomas won championships, 2 of them in the NBA.
Add in a college national championships, and rivalries with the likes of Jordan, Bird, and
Magic, and you have one of the all time greats.  Add in some mesmerizing ball handling,
and an infectious smile, and it's understandable why he is so popular.  Thomas averaged
19.2 points, 3.6 rebounds, and 9.3 assists per game in 36.3 minutes per game.  Adjusting
per minutes those are right there with Iverson's numbers.  There are some problems beyond
that, though.  For one, Thomas played in an era of faster paced basketball.  This was
especially true in the early 80s.  For a lot of the decade the Pistons were a run, and gun
team.  They didn't become the slow down grind it out Bad Boys until late in the decade.
Looking at his per 100 possession statistics and doing some math, it seems that the
average pace he played at was about 99 possessions per 48 minutes.  Michael Jordan who
played his first 9 seasons when Thomas was playing, had a little less than 94 possessions
per 48, probably around 93.5 for his career.  Magic Johnson and Larry Bird would have
played at a similar pace as Isiah.  That is factored into PER.  He also shot 45.4% from
 the field in an era where that was a good deal below average.  He had a true shooting
percetange of 51.6%, in an era where that percentage was usually around 53-54%.  So while
he scored at a decent rate, his efficiency in doing so was below average.  His 9.3
assists per game are great, but he also turned the ball over 3.7 times per game.  His
assists to turnover ratio was still a good 2.5/1, but a turnover hurts you more than a
missed shot in terms of PER, because it ends a possessions, where a missed shot could be
rebounded by the offense.  Thomas' career regular season PER is just 18.1, not a lot
higher than the average 15.0.  His win shares per 48 minutes is .109, and he only had 80.7
career win shares in the regular. To Thomas's credit, he did better in the postseason.
His win shares per 48 minutes is .146 in the postseason, which still comes up well short
of Chris Paul, and John Stockton.  His career postseason PER in only 19.8.


Pete Maravich
'Pistol' Pete isn't as highly rated among the all time great as Allen Iverson, and Isiah
Thomas, but I still think that he is similar.  Like both of them he was a flashy ball
handler, whose spectacular plays would cover up the weaknesses in his game.  Those who
are fans of Maravich are very praising of his ability as a basketball player, but the
advanced metrics do him very few favors.  Before I get to that let's get into Maravich's
college career.  He average a ridiculous 44.2 points per game in his college career, but
also took an insane 38.1 field goal attempts per game, making 43.8% of them, playing in
a conference that was still largely racially segregated.  In his NBA career Maravich's
points, rebounds, and assists averages still look good.  Playing 37.0 minutes per game,
his ppg-rpg-apg line is 24.2-4.2-5.4.  One of the negatives about him is that he shot
only 44.1% from the field in an era of high field goal percentages.  His true shooting
percentage was 50.0%.  That was below average in the era he played in.  In fact it
would've been below average any season after he played also.  So like Iverson and Thomas,
he got a good number of points, but wasn't efficient.  The league started counting steals,
and blocks in the 1973-74 season, and during the 7 seasons of his career that those stats
were counted he averaged 1.3 steals, and 0.3 blocks.  His steals average is worse than
Thomas, and Iverson, and even though he was 6'5" he didn't get that many blocks.  His
numbers also become less impressive when you consider the fast paces that teams in
the league, and most specifically his teams, played at during his career.  His career PER
was 18.4, and he topped out at 20.5 in the 1975-76 season.  He didn't play on good teams
for most of his career but even considering that his .092 wins shares per 48 minutes,
isn't that impressive, who you consider his reputation.  Pete didn't play much in the
playoffs.  He only playe din 26 playoff games in his career.  His playoff PER was 17.4,
and he had .065 wins shares per 48 minutes in the playoffs.  He made the postseason in
his first three seasons with Atlanta, and in his last season with Boston when he was very
close to 33 years old.

ConcernedStudent1950 vs

I first heard about the situation on ESPN.  I watch a whole lot of ESPN.  I'm pretty senile when it comes to keeping up with current trends in music, sitcoms, dramas, Reality TV, etc.  While watching ESPN, I first heard about black football players at Missouri who were going on strike.  Going on strike until the University President was taken out of that position.  He was supposedly guilty of not doing enough about the racism on campus, or something to that effect.  I heard about racial slurs being used, and a Swastika.  That president, Tim Wolfe, resigned rather quickly.  While watching more ESPN,  I heard comments being made that lauded the athletes for taking a political stand, and not going the route that numerous other black athletes do.  This came not long after Kareem Abdul-Jabbar said that Michael Jordan chose commerce over conscious.   So the issue of athletes taking political stands was already a hot button issue.  The problem I had with the story was the lack of details that I was hearing.  All these people on ESPN were making very general statements, and not being specific.  How could they say that Wolfe ignored the racism that was going on, or say that he didn't respond quick enough?  That, in itself is an opinion.  Wolfe could have given a decent effort, and some would have still thought it wasn't enough.  What was it about his response or lack thereof, that meant that he deserved to be pushed out his presidency?  The specifics as to the actual role of Wolfe weren't given, from what I saw on ESPN.  I needed to find out.  So I did what so many of the people I am around tend not to do.  I did some research.  In this internet age it doesn't take much to research.  I read about a group named Concerned Student 1950, and I look at this article which talks about their demands. http://www.foxsports.com/college-football/story/missouri-protesters-issue-list-of-demands-to-university-110815.  I looked at this great video by Thunderf00t https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G5MPzQnokMU.

Tim Wolfe wasn't looking so guilty after all.  Even a video in which members of the Concerned Student 1950 group try to explain why they wanted him to be removed doesn't provide much of a case for his removal.   The way they explain it, the system is fucked up, and he's the leader, so he's got to go.  The list of demands of just plain ridiculous.  How could the University be expected to ass kiss this group and follow their demands?  The group is just asking for too much.  Let's look at the different demands from the Fox Sports article.  The first demand is maybe the dumbest of all of them.  Did they really want this man to hold a press conference explaining his white male privilege?  What the fuck do you want?  You want him to humiliate himself?  What about this driver of his who hit a student?  Was this student sent to the hospital?  Did they suffer a bad injury?  Maybe they were like the woman in the Thuderf00t video, who put her body up against a man, and then told him to stop touching her breasts, despite the fact that she was responsible for the contact.   So I looked for some explanation on what happened, and found this article for the Huffington Post http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/tim-wolfe-homecoming-parade_56402cc8e4b0307f2cadea10. 

The paragraph about the incident, cut and pasted from the Post

Then the driver of Wolfe's car tried to drive around them. The students moved their line, arms linked, to block the driver, who continued to try to push forward. The driver again tried to get through a moment later, coming in contact with one of the students.


WTF is going on here?  The students blocked the driver.  He didn't run into anyone on purpose, and that certainly wasn't Wolfe's idea for him to hit someone, and the way it is described leads me to believe that little damage was done.  Maybe the side the vehicle brushed up against someone.  I can safely put this into the same category of the supposed breast touching incident that I previously mentioned.  I would also like to know how did he consent to the physical violence?  I guess they must of told him that they were going to fuck those black students up, and he must've said, go right ahead, and have your way with them. (After writing this paragraph I saw the video of the incident, and what I suspected is pretty much what happened)

Demand II does not make sense on so many levels.  You really want students to have that big of a hand in electing the University President.  For the most part, students are there to get an education, not to dictate shit.

Demand III actually leads to a list of demands that I am not going to get into now.  It has to do with demands presented in 1969 for the betterment of the black community.

Demand IV is another one that is just asking too much.  How could you expect them to make racial awareness, and inclusion curriculum mandatory.  Not just that but mandatory for students, staff, and administration.  As if that wasn't asking for enough, the curriculum needs to be overseen by students of color.  Sorry the white people can not get in on the overseeing of this curriculum, but the curriculum would be mandatory for those of all races.

Demand number V misses out on a key issue.  Before I getting into that, it is worth mentioning that Thunderf00t let us know that blacks make up less than 8% of the University of Missouri's undergrad students.  So, going by that figure 10% would be overrepresentation.  There is also the key issue of education.  The fact is that blacks don't achieve as much in terms of education as whites do.  Blacks have lower college graduation rates.  When it comes to being part of University staff, and administration, education is very important.  That is the logical explanation as to why the staff at the University would have such a small percentage of blacks.  As is pointed out in the Thunderf00t video Asians are overrepresented in terms of University staff.  Asians also, not coincidentally, achieve greater in terms of academics, and college graduation, than whites.  A better way of trying to deal with the issue would be to start at the grass roots level, and coming up with solutions to improve the educational achievement of black kids.   How is getting Wolfe to resign going to help with that issue?

Demand VI isn't too specific. It doesn't go into details into why those things are needed.

Demand VII doesn't come with much context.  What is the university already doing for mental health?  I don't know, and obviously there is no type of explanation given.  I guess that isn't important, when your main objective is to fucking cry, and complain until you get your way.  I wouldn't expect a university to be a jack of all trades.  Their main thing is educating students, there are plenty mental health facilities that deal with the mentally ill.  I am mentally ill myself, but that doesn't stop me from knowing that this demand is bullshit.  You can, as students and as people do things on your own to increase the awareness of mental health issues.  You don't just demand a University to do so.  At least give us some in depth analysis, or some statistics that show how bad the University is doing in terms of dealing with mental health.  Since we are a it, why don't we also cry to them about how ignore cancer, sexism (against women, and men), height discrimination, bullying, fat shaming?  The point is, if you wanted to nitpick problems you can cry all fucking day.

Demand VIII is much like the 7th one.  Once again there is no real explanation.  There is no data about how much money is actually donated to those programs.  No business model for increasing donations, and making it worthwhile for the University.

Yes, these are the fucking demands.  Why is it that Tim Wolfe had to resign?   

 

WHAT IS WRONG WITH THE URLTV POLLS


Is it just me or some poll results at the URLtv.tv website look suspicious. I started wondering about the subject with the poll for the battle between Shotgun Suge and Th3 Saga. There were some that felt Saga won, but most thought Suge won, and at first the poll reflected that. Suge had a pretty solid lead, and then by like the next morning Saga had thousands of extra votes going his way. He was blowing Suge out, and had at the time the most votes I had seen anyone get on the site. It didn't make sense. There were plenty more battles that were more anticipated where both battlers combined didn't get the number of votes Th3 Saga got for that battle. That was the most curious case I ran into until the last couple of days. When I looked at the twitter reaction for the Charlie Clips vs Loaded Lux battle, it seemed that Lux had won with the fans. At first the URL poll went right along with that. Lux lead Clips 63% to 37%. Then the next day I checked the poll, and Clips had a 68% to 32% lead, and that doesn't compare to what happened in the next poll after the battle dropped on URL's youtube page. Lux once again got out to a comfortable lead, then Clips started getting thousands of votes. Within about a day he had already surpassed the vote total for Th3 Saga. At the time I got the screenshot Clips had over 18,000 votes in his favor. At this rate, the voting for Th3 Saga vs Suge will look honest in comparison. The shots below were all taken sometime between 9:30 to 11:00 pm on 9/28/15, so the results could dramatically change by the time this is posted. I picked battles that were heavily anticipated, and debated. These other polls have been out for a while. I screenshot the results to give an idea how ridiculous the number of votes in the Clips-Lux poll is. Hollow vs Clips had a similar amount of anticipation of Lux, and Clips, but Charlie's 18,000 plus votes easily outnumber both totals for the Hollow and Clips for that poll combined. The battle between Tsu Surf, and Hitman Holla may be on it's way to being the most viewed battle in URL history. It has nearly 3 million views. Yet Clips vote total is more than double both of theirs put together. The vote total that compares is Saga's vs. Suge, and I already got to that one, and how it's suspicious. That poll has also been on the page a lot longer.

Seems pretty obvious that the polls for the Suge-Saga, and Lux-Clips battles have been tampered with, the question is who and how the fuck has it happened. I even read that Daylyt was winning a poll over Rone in a battle that he walked out of in the first round. I don't think that the rappers are fucking with results, though there may have been some who have at some time, but there is certainly no proof of it. I wouldn't even say that URL is responsible for it. Maybe there is someone that is a huge Charlie Clips fan that hacked into the site. Maybe someone got the votebots going. As a battle rap fan, I have my own opinions who won what battles. I also want to know what other people think. I can think one rapper clearly beat another 3-0, but if most fans think the other guy won, then he is winner according to public opinion. The problem comes when you have poll result that don't match public opinion, and appear to have been tampered with, and battlers who are winning those polls mention it. Battle rappers don't usually think they lose even when they clearly do. Sometimes the fan vote can make them come to grips with a loss.