What's Up With The NBA: Why So Many Don't Like The League

 The NBA's popularity if down.  That one is obvious.  Their ratings have taken a big hit than NFL's, or MLB's in recent years.  Why it is that the league's popularity is has taken such a big hit.  Some people are arguing that it's the Inside the NBA show, on TNT, and how they talk down on the modern game.  Thankfully most people don't believe this, and there are obviously others things that have a much bigger impact on the game's popularity.  Sports fan nowadays just don't like the NBA the way they used to, and if anything the cast of Inside the NBA are just stating what most of the public thinks about the league.  Let's go through some reasons that the league's popularity is low.

3 Point Shooting

It's understandable why players are taking so many three point shots.  It counts for an extra point, and many players are good enough at it to make it a valuable asset.  The problem is that it makes the 3 point shot, once something special, and makes it routine.  The 3 point attempt rates had stagnated before this season with rates being around 39-40 percent in the past 4 seasons before this one, but rates have gone up to over 42% so far this season.

Load Management

With so many players missing games for load management, no wonder fans think regular season games aren't that important.  Some players obviously don't think they are that important.  This has done more to send a message to fans than any talk show has.

Lack  of Defense/Competetivness

When players aren't missing games due to load management they tend to play games with very little intensity.  You don't sense much animosity between different teams, and teams don't go out of their way to stop star players from doing their thing.  Part of that is rule changes meant to help offenses.  Among those are not allowing hand checking, or forearm checking, and taking away the defensive 3 seconds, but a bigger part of it is that players seem to be resting through much of the regular season, saving their intense play for the playoffs.  This goes back to load management.  With NBA having such a long schedule and then having the play in games added in, talented teams realize they don't need to try that hard in the regular season, and can save themselves for the playoffs.

Social Justice

The NBA has irritated many people, mostly white, with their focus on social justice.  They annoyed a good portion of their old fanbase, as players are eager to involve politics into their interviews, and personal image.  The NFL has this same issue, but they haven't taken the popularity hit the NBA has.

A look at Michael Jordan's Steals, and Blocks From 1987-88 Home Games

There has been a lot of talk about Jordan having inflated home stats from the 1987-88 season in the steals, and blocks category, so I wanted to watch the games for myself.  It wasn't as easy as I thought to get full home games from that regular season, and

 watching them to count steals, and blocks wasn't as easy task.  So far I've got 8 of the that were at least close to full games.  The broadcast of the game vs Houston starts a little late, but I found 5 steals, and 5 blocks from Jordan in that game.  Here is a list of the games with links, and timestamps.  Possible steals are mostly plays in which Jordan played a role in a steal, but I didn't give him credit for it.  One of them is a play in which Jerome Kersey got the ball, and Jordan took it from him, but Kersey didn't establish possession of the ball.  In parenthesis are the steals, and blocks Jordan got credit for in the box score.

 

12/12/87 vs Houston   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZHOdUzx6Dt0     starts a few min in    

5 steals  5 blocks  1 possible block   (5 steals - 5 blocks)

steal  16:51

block  25:42

block  29:06

steal  30:20

possible block 1:02:42

block 1:04:36

steal  1:28:22

block 1:29:10

block  1:40:49

steal  2:08:12

steal  2:09:38

2/26/88 vs Portland  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m2xz5fk5Yj8  

2 steals   3 blocks  1 possible steal  (2 steals - 3 blocks)

block 17:25

possible steal 23:31

block  6:55

steal  1:07:20

block  1:15:49

steal  1:21:40

11/7/87 vs Philadelphia   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P-_cKG-xztk  

5 steals  3 blocks  1 possible steal   (6 steals-4 blocks)

steal 16:29

steal  17:22

steal  17:48 

possible steal 31:37 

deflection sets up turnover 32:34

steal  37:45

steal  38:40

block  44:12

block  50:06 

block 1:23:16 block called by announcer, not shown on screen.  Replay of the block shown at 1:23:41

12/17/87 vs Cleveland    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6o40ZiQ8Ab4&t=1s  

2 steals 1 block  1 possible block  (4 steals - 1 block)

block 34:20

35:50  Paxson's steal Jordan gets a hand on it 

possible block, not likely 37:19

steal 45:11 

steal 47:38

4/24/88 vs Boston    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5hvbEAPmsZg  

1 steal  1 block   (1 steal-1 block)

block  13:03

steal  38:11

12/22/87  vs Dallas  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RAmDezAwitQ 

2 steals  2  blocks  2 possible blocks  (4 steals - 2 blocks)   

possible block  13:23  

possible block  15:40 

block  20:20

steal  31:16

block  55:27

steal  1:01:23

3/10/88 vs Los Angeles    https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=2&v=_2GMwfS8qC8  

3 steals  1 possible block  (3 steals - 1 block)

steal  8:08

steal  42:00

possible block  55:34

steal  1:10:00

3/18/88 vs Boston   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yf8LprvGLjo   

3 steals  2 possible steals  1 block   (5 steals - 1 block )

steal  15:13

steal  16:31

block  23:09

possible steal  47:10  

steal  1:03:40

possible steal 1:08:02

Jordan got credit for 25 steals, and 13 blocks not counting the Houston game, and in those I counted 19 steals, 11 blocks, with 3 possible steals, and 4 possible blocks 

Counting the game against Houston he got credit for 30 steals,  and 18 blocks.  I gave him credit for  24 steals,  16 blocks, with 3 possible steals,  5 possible blocks, 1 slight deflection that caused a steal, and one steal that was clearly John Paxson's but Jordan did get a hand on it.

                                Steals     Blocks

Box Score                 30          18

Counted by me         24          16

Other Possible           3           5

Others Involved in     2           0

Max. Counted          29          21

Blocks are tough thing to catch sometimes when watching lower quality video, so Jordan is close enough in blocks, especially when you count those other plays in which I couldn't tell if he blocked a shot.  He probably got proper credit for blocks.  Steals is a subjective thing. When 1 player makes the deflection, and someone else gets the ball, who gets the steal?  According to what I saw, and read if the deflection is a controlled deflection away from the opposing player, and/or to a teammate, then the player that makes the deflection should get credit for the steal.  It's still confusing as to what exactly makes a controlled deflection.  What if the deflection isn't controlled but teammates who gets the ball does little outside of just catching it?  Add that to confusion over whether so swats are strips, or blocks, and it makes for a tough stat to keep track of.    That was the case in the Mavericks game.  I gave Jordan credit for 2 steals, and 2 blocks, with two possible blocks.  If I were to assume those possible blocks were blocks, that makes for 2 steals, and 4 blocks, but the box score has Jordan with 4 steals, and 2 blocks.  I think that a couple of those plays that I gave Jordan blocks on were counted as steals.  I gave Jordan credit for 80% of the steals he got credit for, with 5 additional plays, but I don't expect to catch everything.  If anything, Jordan could've been given so bias when it came to steals in played a role in, whether he, or a teammate, made the deflection.  I don't believe that Jordan was routinely given credit for steals on turnovers such as shot clock violations of the balls out of bounds off of a defender.  8 out 41 games is a small sample size.  I consider this study unfinished.

For further confusion

Steals - NBA.com: Jr. NBA

Steal, credited to defender who deflects the ball away from opponent | NBA Video Rulebook

Jordan vs Havlicek

The Michael Jordan-John Havlicek comparison has been spreading quickly on social media. The meme list their career finals record, season played, points, rebounds, and assists. I guess the point being that if Jordan's numbers aren't that much greater than this white guy, who isn't thought to be in the same league as him, then that is a knock on his greatness. Havlicek had a 8-0 Finals record, 16 seasons played 26395 points, 8044 rebounds, and 6114 assists. Jordan had a 6-0 Finals record, 15 seasons played 32292 points, 6672 rebounds, and 5633 assists. There are numerous problems with this comparison. For one Havlicek was a great player, though he wasn't on Jordan's level. Another issue is the fact that these numbers are listed out of context. Havlicek played as part of a dynasty in Boston. The Celtics won 4 straight championships, and 5 out of the prior 6 before he joined them. Bill Russell was the key to those teams. While Havlicek won two without Russell, they came with another great big man, in Dave Cowens, and the team didn't have nearly the same dominance after Russell retired. Havlicek may have been the best player on 1 of the 8 championship teams he played on, and you could argue none. Jordan, on the other hand, joined a team that was a bad team before he joined. While he got help later on, he was clearly the best player on all 6 of his teams' championship seasons. Jordan played 1072 games to Havlicek's 1270, and per game averages are clearly on the side of Jordan. Jordan also played only the last 17 games of the 1994-95 season as he was retired for most of the season, so the 15 seasons is deceiving. Then there are the individual numbers, which don't look at the differences in the eras, and teams they played for. Havlicek played in an era of much faster paces, and lower efficiency. I estimate that Havlicek had a career pace of 116.0 possessions per 48, compared to only 93.6 for Jordan. What would Havlicek's numbers look like if I adjusted for pace, and league per 100 possession averages? I've done some math to come up with estimates of his numbers if his team played at the same pace as Jordan's, in a league with the same per 100 possessions averages for points, rebounds, and assists.  This isn't factoring in games played or minutes played, or even seasons played.  Here's the comparison

                        Havlicek Adj.          Jordan 

Points               23504                      32292

Rebounds          6144                        6672

Assists              5960                        5633

When factoring in games played, or minutes played the adjusted stats are clearly in Jordan's favor.  The stats are already in his favor, when comparing his stats to Havlicek's career numbers, but the adjusted numbers make the comparison seem ridiculous.  

Some other things to factor in  

Havlicek was slightly below league average in true shooting percentage, at 49.2%, compared to the league average of 49.8%.  Jordan at 56.9% was above his league average of 53.4%.  

Basketball Reference only has rebound percent starting with Havlicek's 9th season, and his percentage is 7.4 for the last 8 seasons of his career.  Jordan's averages at the end of his career are consistent with his career rebound percentage of 9.4.  In his last 8 seasons his rebound % was 9.5.  Assists % isn't a good stat to compare, as standards for what was an assist were tougher in Havlicek's career.     Steals and blocks were only counted in Havlicek's last 5 seasons, when he was past his prime.  For what it's worth Jordan in his last 5 season was better at getting steals, and blocks than Havlicek in his last 5 seasons.