Why 1976-2003? Well 1976 was the year of the NBA/ABA merger You don't have to deal with how many of a player's win shares came in the ABA, and what to do with those. Another factor is that more teams equals more roster spots for the players drafted. Counting those years in which the league didn't have many teams would be unfair. In seasons in which the league had 8 teams, a draft class might have 1 or 2 dominant players, but then there are a number of players who didn't do very much in their careers. In the 50's, and 60's, the #20 player for each draft would usually have around 0 win shares, and numerous times they had a negative amount of career win shares. 2003 is the year that Lebron, D-Wade, Chris Bosh, and Carmelo Anthony were drafted, and going into drafts after that would lead to the problem of more, and more players still playihng, and not having long careers. That would be unfair to later drafts. It's an issue with the 2003 draft, but not much of one.
Why wins shares? That because basketball reference's pages for drafts has the win shares, and win shares per 48 minutes for players, so that makes the process quicker. Win shares isn't my favorite metric for judging a player. Part of the problem is that being on a winning team helps with win shares, and great players on bad teams get penalized. There is also the longevity thing. One player might have more career win shares than a better player, because he played significantly longer. Factoring in more players decreases the chance of the stats being inaccurate for the group. I am only counting regular season wins shares, which is another issue.
As I mentioned I looked at the top 20 players from the 28 drafts based on career win shares. Going past 20 would be beneficial for later years in which the league had more teams. I calculated the average in win shares for the top 10 players of that 20, and also for all 20. In the table those are represented by WS/10, and WS/20. Then I took those same top 20, still listed in order of career win shares, and calculated the average win shares per 48 for the top ten, and then the top 20. Those averages are represent by WS48/10, and WS/48/20.
Formula
1. Add together the average win shares of the top 10, and 20
2. Add together wins average win shares per 48 or top 10, and top 20, and multiply by 400
3. Add totals from first two parts
Rank
|
Draft
|
WS/10
|
Rank
|
WS/20
|
Rank
|
WS48/10
|
Rank
|
WS48/20
|
Rank
|
Points
|
1
|
1984
|
125.13
|
1
|
75.33
|
1
|
.156
|
1
|
.1219
|
2
|
311.62
|
2
|
1985
|
107.64
|
2
|
75.21
|
2
|
.1328
|
7T
|
.12255
|
1
|
287.19
|
3
|
1987
|
100.17
|
3
|
63.995
|
4
|
.1428
|
2
|
.11915
|
4
|
268.945
|
4
|
1996
|
99.17
|
4
|
67.715
|
3
|
.1384
|
3
|
.11515
|
5
|
268.305
|
5
|
2003
|
92.51
|
5
|
62.215
|
5
|
.1341
|
5
|
.11315
|
6
|
253.625
|
6
|
1999
|
88.42
|
7
|
62.07
|
6
|
.1329
|
6
|
.12175
|
3
|
252.35
|
7
|
1998
|
91
|
6
|
61.025
|
7
|
.1211
|
15
|
.1051
|
15
|
242.505
|
8
|
2001
|
85.36
|
8
|
58.935
|
8
|
.1258
|
10
|
.10805
|
12
|
237.835
|
9
|
1995
|
80.22
|
9
|
54.73
|
9
|
.1198
|
19
|
.109
|
11
|
226.47
|
10
|
1979
|
73.97
|
12
|
49.945
|
14
|
.1349
|
4
|
.1122
|
7
|
222.755
|
11
|
1977
|
70.25
|
15
|
53.92
|
10
|
.1286
|
9
|
.11185
|
8
|
220.35
|
12
|
1981
|
77.17
|
10
|
53.165
|
11
|
.1192
|
20
|
.1035
|
17
|
219.415
|
13
|
1992
|
74.02
|
11
|
51.5
|
12
|
.1232
|
13
|
.10605
|
14
|
217.22
|
14
|
1997
|
72.88
|
13
|
47.04
|
17
|
.1206
|
17
|
.10935
|
10
|
211.9
|
15
|
1988
|
68.24
|
18
|
49.96
|
13
|
.1220
|
14
|
.10705
|
13
|
209.82
|
16
|
1989
|
72.67
|
14
|
48.28
|
16
|
.1209
|
16
|
.0964
|
25
|
207.87
|
17
|
1983
|
69.58
|
16
|
48.94
|
15
|
.1147
|
22
|
.10035
|
19
|
204.54
|
18
|
1986
|
63.16
|
23
|
43.21
|
21
|
.1328
|
7T
|
.11135
|
9
|
204.03
|
19
|
1982
|
64.96
|
20
|
44.49
|
18
|
.1204
|
18
|
.10415
|
16
|
199.27
|
20
|
1994
|
68.3
|
17
|
44.205
|
19
|
.1089
|
26
|
.0994
|
22
|
195.825
|
21
|
1976
|
67.29
|
19
|
40.545
|
25
|
.1187
|
21
|
.0984
|
23
|
194.675
|
22
|
1991
|
64.22
|
22
|
40.875
|
24
|
.1234
|
12
|
.0997
|
21
|
194.335
|
23
|
2002
|
61.69
|
24
|
40.15
|
26
|
.1249
|
11
|
.1011
|
18
|
192.24
|
24
|
1978
|
64.41
|
21
|
44.1
|
20
|
.1109
|
25
|
.0953
|
26
|
190.99
|
25
|
1990
|
60.54
|
25
|
41.665
|
23
|
.1143
|
23
|
.09975
|
20
|
187.825
|
26
|
1993
|
56.29
|
26
|
41.83
|
22
|
.1065
|
27
|
.09785
|
24
|
179.86
|
27
|
1980
|
51.33
|
27
|
36.32
|
27
|
.1111
|
24
|
.09435
|
27
|
169.83
|
28
|
2000
|
43.25
|
28
|
29.865
|
28
|
.0946
|
28
|
.08635
|
28
|
145.495
|
Here's the list. The 1984 draft is at number 1, and that doesn't' come as a surprise. This is the best draft at the top. Michael Jordan, Hakeem Olajuwon, Charles Barkley, and John Stockton are 4 of the all time greats, and in Stockton the draft has a player whose metrics are even better than his reputation. Jordan had 214.0 win shares, Stockton had 207, Barkley had 177.2, and Olajuwon had 162.6. Otis Thorpe, and Sam Perkins also had over 100 win shares, giving this draft 6 players with over 100 career win shares. That's more than any other draft. In terms of win shares per 48, Jordan, Stockton, and Barkley are all over .200, with Jordan being the all time leader in that category. That's fair enough for the number one draft. The 2000 draft is the worst and it's not even close. Hedo Turkoglu has the highest career win shares of anyone in that draft at just 63.3. As far as the smell test, this list passes in terms of the #1, and #28 drafts, but what about the others.
The 1996 draft is the favorite of many millennials, but that draft is 4th, and a well behind the top two. You can see why people love the draft so much. It had a lot of entertaining players, like Kobe Bryant, Allen Iverson, Stephon Marbury, and Steve Nash, and Ray Allen. The top 3 from that draft in career win shares are Kobe at 172.7, Allen at 145.1, and Steve Nash at 129.7. Still this draft has several players whose wins shares don't measure up to their reputation. Even Kobe doesn't do as well in win shares are you might think he would based on his reputation. His 172.7 wins shares came in 20 seasons, and he averaged .170 per 48 minutes. Michael Jordan, who many argue that Kobe was close to in terms of greatness, had 214.0 win shares in just 15 seasons (including 1995, in which he came out of retirement with just 17 games left), and .250 win shares per 48. Allen Iverson didn't even have 100 career wins shares, finishing with 99.0.
The 1985, and 2003 drafts are both surprises. The 85' draft didn't have the same star power at the top as the year before, with Karl Malone, and Patrick Ewing being the only players in this draft who can be compared to the top 4 in 1984, but this draft was deeper. There were a number of really good players taken in this draft. Terry Porter, and Detlef Schempf both had over 100 career win shares. A.C. Green, who benefited in win shares from being on the Showtime Lakers early in his career, had 99.5, and Chris Mullin finished his career with 93.1. Charles Oakley had 89.7 win shares for his career, and Joe Dumars had 86.2. This draft actually ranks number one in WS48/20. It ranks 2nd in the first two categories, and 7th in the 3rd. The 2003 draft is another favorite of millennials, and I thought this one would rank higher. Dwyane Wade, who was close to Lebron at his peak, had injury problems that limited him in games played and limited how long he was at his peak. Lebron James, Carmelo Anthony, and Kyle Korver are the only players from the draft still playing, and out of those 3, Lebron is the only who still has significant production. I had first done math for this formula last year, and in the 2019-20, this draft only grained a little less than 2 points. While Lebron has been great, even his win shares per 48 minutes has gone down in recent years.
The 1987 draft ranks 3rd. That draft had David Robinson, Reggie Miller, Scottie Pippen, and Horace Grant all finishing with over 100 career win shares, with Robinson, and Miller both over 170. Robinson's win shares per 48 is second all time, just barely behind Michael Jordan. The top 3 drafts happened during a 4 season period, with the 1986 draft in between. That 86' draft didn't do as badly as I thought finishing 18th.
Another interesting fact is that Larry Bird was part of the 1978 draft, but was allowed to go back to college, and came out the next year. If I counted Bird with the class of 79', that draft would go up 7th, and the 78' draft would drop to 27th.
