What's Up With The NBA: Why So Many Don't Like The League

 The NBA's popularity if down.  That one is obvious.  Their ratings have taken a big hit than NFL's, or MLB's in recent years.  Why it is that the league's popularity is has taken such a big hit.  Some people are arguing that it's the Inside the NBA show, on TNT, and how they talk down on the modern game.  Thankfully most people don't believe this, and there are obviously others things that have a much bigger impact on the game's popularity.  Sports fan nowadays just don't like the NBA the way they used to, and if anything the cast of Inside the NBA are just stating what most of the public thinks about the league.  Let's go through some reasons that the league's popularity is low.

3 Point Shooting

It's understandable why players are taking so many three point shots.  It counts for an extra point, and many players are good enough at it to make it a valuable asset.  The problem is that it makes the 3 point shot, once something special, and makes it routine.  The 3 point attempt rates had stagnated before this season with rates being around 39-40 percent in the past 4 seasons before this one, but rates have gone up to over 42% so far this season.

Load Management

With so many players missing games for load management, no wonder fans think regular season games aren't that important.  Some players obviously don't think they are that important.  This has done more to send a message to fans than any talk show has.

Lack  of Defense/Competetivness

When players aren't missing games due to load management they tend to play games with very little intensity.  You don't sense much animosity between different teams, and teams don't go out of their way to stop star players from doing their thing.  Part of that is rule changes meant to help offenses.  Among those are not allowing hand checking, or forearm checking, and taking away the defensive 3 seconds, but a bigger part of it is that players seem to be resting through much of the regular season, saving their intense play for the playoffs.  This goes back to load management.  With NBA having such a long schedule and then having the play in games added in, talented teams realize they don't need to try that hard in the regular season, and can save themselves for the playoffs.

Social Justice

The NBA has irritated many people, mostly white, with their focus on social justice.  They annoyed a good portion of their old fanbase, as players are eager to involve politics into their interviews, and personal image.  The NFL has this same issue, but they haven't taken the popularity hit the NBA has.

A look at Michael Jordan's Steals, and Blocks From 1987-88 Home Games

There has been a lot of talk about Jordan having inflated home stats from the 1987-88 season in the steals, and blocks category, so I wanted to watch the games for myself.  It wasn't as easy as I thought to get full home games from that regular season, and

 watching them to count steals, and blocks wasn't as easy task.  So far I've got 8 of the that were at least close to full games.  The broadcast of the game vs Houston starts a little late, but I found 5 steals, and 5 blocks from Jordan in that game.  Here is a list of the games with links, and timestamps.  Possible steals are mostly plays in which Jordan played a role in a steal, but I didn't give him credit for it.  One of them is a play in which Jerome Kersey got the ball, and Jordan took it from him, but Kersey didn't establish possession of the ball.  In parenthesis are the steals, and blocks Jordan got credit for in the box score.

 

12/12/87 vs Houston   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZHOdUzx6Dt0     starts a few min in    

5 steals  5 blocks  1 possible block   (5 steals - 5 blocks)

steal  16:51

block  25:42

block  29:06

steal  30:20

possible block 1:02:42

block 1:04:36

steal  1:28:22

block 1:29:10

block  1:40:49

steal  2:08:12

steal  2:09:38

2/26/88 vs Portland  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m2xz5fk5Yj8  

2 steals   3 blocks  1 possible steal  (2 steals - 3 blocks)

block 17:25

possible steal 23:31

block  6:55

steal  1:07:20

block  1:15:49

steal  1:21:40

11/7/87 vs Philadelphia   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P-_cKG-xztk  

5 steals  3 blocks  1 possible steal   (6 steals-4 blocks)

steal 16:29

steal  17:22

steal  17:48 

possible steal 31:37 

deflection sets up turnover 32:34

steal  37:45

steal  38:40

block  44:12

block  50:06 

block 1:23:16 block called by announcer, not shown on screen.  Replay of the block shown at 1:23:41

12/17/87 vs Cleveland    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6o40ZiQ8Ab4&t=1s  

2 steals 1 block  1 possible block  (4 steals - 1 block)

block 34:20

35:50  Paxson's steal Jordan gets a hand on it 

possible block, not likely 37:19

steal 45:11 

steal 47:38

4/24/88 vs Boston    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5hvbEAPmsZg  

1 steal  1 block   (1 steal-1 block)

block  13:03

steal  38:11

12/22/87  vs Dallas  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RAmDezAwitQ 

2 steals  2  blocks  2 possible blocks  (4 steals - 2 blocks)   

possible block  13:23  

possible block  15:40 

block  20:20

steal  31:16

block  55:27

steal  1:01:23

3/10/88 vs Los Angeles    https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=2&v=_2GMwfS8qC8  

3 steals  1 possible block  (3 steals - 1 block)

steal  8:08

steal  42:00

possible block  55:34

steal  1:10:00

3/18/88 vs Boston   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yf8LprvGLjo   

3 steals  2 possible steals  1 block   (5 steals - 1 block )

steal  15:13

steal  16:31

block  23:09

possible steal  47:10  

steal  1:03:40

possible steal 1:08:02

Jordan got credit for 25 steals, and 13 blocks not counting the Houston game, and in those I counted 19 steals, 11 blocks, with 3 possible steals, and 4 possible blocks 

Counting the game against Houston he got credit for 30 steals,  and 18 blocks.  I gave him credit for  24 steals,  16 blocks, with 3 possible steals,  5 possible blocks, 1 slight deflection that caused a steal, and one steal that was clearly John Paxson's but Jordan did get a hand on it.

                                Steals     Blocks

Box Score                 30          18

Counted by me         24          16

Other Possible           3           5

Others Involved in     2           0

Max. Counted          29          21

Blocks are tough thing to catch sometimes when watching lower quality video, so Jordan is close enough in blocks, especially when you count those other plays in which I couldn't tell if he blocked a shot.  He probably got proper credit for blocks.  Steals is a subjective thing. When 1 player makes the deflection, and someone else gets the ball, who gets the steal?  According to what I saw, and read if the deflection is a controlled deflection away from the opposing player, and/or to a teammate, then the player that makes the deflection should get credit for the steal.  It's still confusing as to what exactly makes a controlled deflection.  What if the deflection isn't controlled but teammates who gets the ball does little outside of just catching it?  Add that to confusion over whether so swats are strips, or blocks, and it makes for a tough stat to keep track of.    That was the case in the Mavericks game.  I gave Jordan credit for 2 steals, and 2 blocks, with two possible blocks.  If I were to assume those possible blocks were blocks, that makes for 2 steals, and 4 blocks, but the box score has Jordan with 4 steals, and 2 blocks.  I think that a couple of those plays that I gave Jordan blocks on were counted as steals.  I gave Jordan credit for 80% of the steals he got credit for, with 5 additional plays, but I don't expect to catch everything.  If anything, Jordan could've been given so bias when it came to steals in played a role in, whether he, or a teammate, made the deflection.  I don't believe that Jordan was routinely given credit for steals on turnovers such as shot clock violations of the balls out of bounds off of a defender.  8 out 41 games is a small sample size.  I consider this study unfinished.

For further confusion

Steals - NBA.com: Jr. NBA

Steal, credited to defender who deflects the ball away from opponent | NBA Video Rulebook

Jordan vs Havlicek

The Michael Jordan-John Havlicek comparison has been spreading quickly on social media. The meme list their career finals record, season played, points, rebounds, and assists. I guess the point being that if Jordan's numbers aren't that much greater than this white guy, who isn't thought to be in the same league as him, then that is a knock on his greatness. Havlicek had a 8-0 Finals record, 16 seasons played 26395 points, 8044 rebounds, and 6114 assists. Jordan had a 6-0 Finals record, 15 seasons played 32292 points, 6672 rebounds, and 5633 assists. There are numerous problems with this comparison. For one Havlicek was a great player, though he wasn't on Jordan's level. Another issue is the fact that these numbers are listed out of context. Havlicek played as part of a dynasty in Boston. The Celtics won 4 straight championships, and 5 out of the prior 6 before he joined them. Bill Russell was the key to those teams. While Havlicek won two without Russell, they came with another great big man, in Dave Cowens, and the team didn't have nearly the same dominance after Russell retired. Havlicek may have been the best player on 1 of the 8 championship teams he played on, and you could argue none. Jordan, on the other hand, joined a team that was a bad team before he joined. While he got help later on, he was clearly the best player on all 6 of his teams' championship seasons. Jordan played 1072 games to Havlicek's 1270, and per game averages are clearly on the side of Jordan. Jordan also played only the last 17 games of the 1994-95 season as he was retired for most of the season, so the 15 seasons is deceiving. Then there are the individual numbers, which don't look at the differences in the eras, and teams they played for. Havlicek played in an era of much faster paces, and lower efficiency. I estimate that Havlicek had a career pace of 116.0 possessions per 48, compared to only 93.6 for Jordan. What would Havlicek's numbers look like if I adjusted for pace, and league per 100 possession averages? I've done some math to come up with estimates of his numbers if his team played at the same pace as Jordan's, in a league with the same per 100 possessions averages for points, rebounds, and assists.  This isn't factoring in games played or minutes played, or even seasons played.  Here's the comparison

                        Havlicek Adj.          Jordan 

Points               23504                      32292

Rebounds          6144                        6672

Assists              5960                        5633

When factoring in games played, or minutes played the adjusted stats are clearly in Jordan's favor.  The stats are already in his favor, when comparing his stats to Havlicek's career numbers, but the adjusted numbers make the comparison seem ridiculous.  

Some other things to factor in  

Havlicek was slightly below league average in true shooting percentage, at 49.2%, compared to the league average of 49.8%.  Jordan at 56.9% was above his league average of 53.4%.  

Basketball Reference only has rebound percent starting with Havlicek's 9th season, and his percentage is 7.4 for the last 8 seasons of his career.  Jordan's averages at the end of his career are consistent with his career rebound percentage of 9.4.  In his last 8 seasons his rebound % was 9.5.  Assists % isn't a good stat to compare, as standards for what was an assist were tougher in Havlicek's career.     Steals and blocks were only counted in Havlicek's last 5 seasons, when he was past his prime.  For what it's worth Jordan in his last 5 season was better at getting steals, and blocks than Havlicek in his last 5 seasons.

Jordan vs Pippen. Who Was Better During Bulls' Title Runs

There are some stupid arguments being made throughout social in the Jordan/Lebron debate, and facebook's algorythm must've figured that I really like those arguments, because it shows me a bunch of them.  There is one that shows the points, rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks for Michael Jordan, and Scottie Pippen for the Bulls' playoff runs for their championship seasons.  The simplistic way of looking at things might lead some to believe that Scottie Pippen was close to as good as Michael Jordan, since he got more rebounds, assists, steals and blocks, while only trailing in points , though scored a lot more points in those runs.  Here's a better statistical look at how they compared in those championship years, and while Pippen's advantages tend to be small, Jordan's advantages are much more significant. The PER, and BPM numbers are accurate estimates, based on their PER, and BPM for each playoff run, and weighing them based on minutes played.

                             

                               FG-FGA    FT-FTA     3p-3pa   Pts       Oreb-Dreb-Reb  Ast  Stl   Blk  To   PF    Min  

Michael Jordan    1395-2916  880-1064   106-314 3776     193-526-719    622   218  91  305  315  4801

Scottie Pippen      809-1824    482-672     100-355  2200    280-628-908    642  244  101 343 358  4723

Jordan     Pippen

fg%    47.8          44.4

ft%     82.7          71.7

3p%   33.8          28..2

efg%  49.7          47.1

ts%    55.8          51.9

ppg    32.6          19.0 

rpg    6.2             7.8

apg    5.4             5.5      

spg    1.9             2.1

bpg    0.8             0.9

topg   2.6             3.0

to%    8.3             13.9

PER  28.4           19.3           

BPM 10.8           5.6

WS    26.7            15.6

ws/48 .267           .159

PER, BPM, and WS per 48 all give Jordan significant advantages over Pippen, and seem to verify what you should have already known.  While Scottie Pippen was a great player, he wasn't on the level of Michael Jordan.   Don't believe me?  You can go basketball reference and do the math for yourself

Deion Sanders Leaves Jackson State For Colorado: What Does This Mean

     Deion Sanders becoming the coach of Colorado has made huge news, and caused some debate on whether he was a sellout or not.  That's what I hear anyway, because it seems to me like most people think it was a good move for him.

    Sanders did make the right move.  Going to Colorado has given him a huge salary, as he signed a deal with a base salary of 29.5 million over five years, plus incentives.  His 5.9 million per year in base salary is a lot more than the 300,000 he was getting at Jackson State.  Colorado also gives Deion a much higher ceiling in terms what can happen in the best case scenario.  For him to see how far he could go in coaching, he had to leave to coach at a higher level.  Jackson State was simply too small for someone as big as Coach Prime.  That is part of why this a bad sign for HBCUs, and those that were hoping that this would lead to some revolution in college football.  Deion didn't just leave for a power five school, but he left for one without a recent history of winning.  Colorado has been really bad since the mid 2000s, and Sanders will face an uphill climb trying to turn it around.  A team that was 1-11 last season. Still even a low level Power Five school like Colorado is well ahead of the best HBCU.    How could some people expect Deion to stick around out of some loyalty to the race, when Colorado gave him a much better opportunity for a lot more money?  How can that be expected of other coaches, and if how are HBCUs going to be at a similar level to the top college football teams.  Part of the backlash from Sanders leaving is JSU, are from people who had unrealistic expectations.  Most people knew he was going to leave for a Power Five school, and he wasn't going to stay at Jackson State for the long term.

    As far as his chances of success, I'm not that sure of that.  While at Jackson State Deion a huge advantage in recruiting.  He made Jackson State a go to spot, as he brough extra attention, and some of his celebrity friends to see the team.  He made Jackson State an attractive option for many black football players, and he was going against a bunch of schools, but most fans don't care too much about.  He won't have that same edge in the Pac 12, where there are other programs who will offer players a great opportunity to set themselves up for the next level. How successful can Sanders be without that huge recruiting edge?

Wrestlemania 38 Attendance

The WWE lies about their Wrestlemania attendance every year.  Before the COVID period they would announced a huge attendance number to break the arena  record.  The WWE Key Performane Indicators (KPI) gives this away every year.  While some think that their KPI only shows paid attendance averages, it's interesting that the KPI, itself, doesn't say paid attendance.  The WWE's second quarter this year had 55 shows with an average attendance of 6800.  Then there is the 4900 average for the shows other than Wrestlemania, at least that's what I think that is supposed to be.  Going off those numbers, not knowing what the actual average is, that would mean a total of 374000 fans for the 55 shows, and 259700 if you exclude the two nights of Wrestlemania.  That would mean a total of 114300 for the two nights of Wrestlemania, and an average of 57150.  The WWE announced 77899 for the first night, and 78453 for the second.  Based on the KPI these numbers aren't just a little off.  They are way off.   The 156352 total for the announced attendance is well above the 114300 estimate from the KPI.  In 2020 Wrestlemania took place at the WWE Performance Center.  Last year only a small portions of the seats in Raymond James Stadium were available.  Since they could get closer to capacity with this year's mania, they may have badly wanted to put out a huge number.  If I assume that the averages listed in the KPI are to the nearest thousand if the 6800 was rounded down from close to 6850, and the 4900 was round up from 4850, it would still mean less than 120000 fans totals fans, and an average of a little under 60000.   This past Wrestlemania took place at AT&T Stadium, which was home of the previous biggest lie for Wrestlemania attendance.  The WWE claimed an audience of 101763 for Wrestlemania 32, but their KPI for that year suggest an actual attendance of about 79800.  79800 is a lot closer to the 80709, that the Arlington Police said attended that Wrestlemania, than the WWE's number.  I don't know how much the mainstream respects the WWE's numbers, because the WWE values what they think.  You can have a bunch of people using legit information, and knowing that the WWE lies about their attendance, but if ESPN, and other outlets keep treating their numbers as legit, they may mean a lot to their public image.

Source   https://corporate.wwe.com/~/media/Files/W/WWE/press-releases/2022/q2-2022-kpi.pdf

Stupid Backlash Aimed At Ricky Gervais

 A few days ago, I read something that said Ricky Gervais made transphobic jokes.  I was thinking about what did he say?  We it really transphobic?  We've seen Dave Chappelle called transphobic, and homophobic for making jokes that were neither.  I went and watched Gervais' new comedy special, Super Nature, on Netflix.  It was very funny, like his others, and those supposed transphobic jokes, weren't at all transphobic.  Compared to Dave Chappelle's jokes, which as I said weren't transphobic, Ricky's jokes were kind.  Unlike Chappelle he seemed to give them the benefit of the doubt and referred to trans women, as being women.  This despite the fact that you can't change your biological sex.  He said nothing mean spirited.  He made a point about the changing of standards, and how that could affect you reputation years from now.  I guess not enough Social Justice Warriors, have faced that circumstance for them to learn about it.  A lot of these Social Justice Warriors are just assholes, using their causes to be assholes for what they feel are the right causes.  

  How far will things go?  What little jokes will be considered transphobic next?  What about those people calling Gervais transphobic?  Why isn't there pressure on them to actually prove that his jokes were transphobic?  If those jokes were as bad as the critics pretend it was, it shouldn't be that difficult to explain.   You can be for trans rights, and still disagree with certain things that are generally accepted in the movement.   In the current time, so many people seem to take that approach.  You disagree on a little something, and you are the enemy.  It's going on across to board in both political parties, especially the Democrats now, and many in other movements.  

The Gervais backlash hasn't been great thus far.  Not as bad as the backlash Dave Chappelle got, but the fact that he's getting this backlash at all, for the jokes he made is a bit scarry.  There may be nothing short of bowing down, or shutting up, that would be good enough to satisfy many of these SJWs.  Many of them would have it no other way.